ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE VALUES AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIA ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

This study investigates the analysis of international trade values and the performance of Nigeria’s economy using time series data from 1988 to 2023. The ARDL error correction model was used to estimate the effect of trade indicators (import values, export values, trade openness, and exchange rate) against real gross domestic product (RGDP), using the Eviews Statistical Package. The findings indicated that international trade has a substantial outcome on Nigeria's economy. However, the specific impacts of trade indicators differ: import value has a negative and inconsequential outcome on RGDP, while export value positively and substantially influence economic growth. Surprisingly, trade openness has a negative and inconsequential impact, and the exchange rate does not significantly influence economic growth. Recommendations include strategic import management, diversification of export sectors, careful assessment of trade openness policies, and measures to stabilize the exchange rate to foster sustainable economic growth.